Thursday, October 28, 2004

at 10/28/2004 03:11:00 PM Posted by Tim Mooney

Pollsters may look silliest of all after this election - they are using conventional "likely voter" filters that exclude young and first time voters from the tally. Reason? They rarely voted. This year is likely to be different. Between them and cell phone only people (yours truly included) there is large, leaning pro-Kerry block of voters not accounted for in the polls. Should Kerry win big, it will be no surprise to me, but I have no doubt it would be the "evidence" some would point to for voter fraud. I write this here and now to look smart later...

In an effort to mock silly pollster spin, I found this gem from pollseter Del Ali in a Portland Tribune article:

“Oregon is Kerry’s,” said Del Ali, whose company conducted the poll. “The numbers have been pretty consistent."

Ok, that makes sense.
"Granted, it’s within the margin of error so you could say it’s statistically close.
Within the margin of err... so, it's not really possible to say it's Kerry's then, right?

"But I doubt it, based on the favorable and unfavorable ratings. Bush has never been above 45 percent in any of our polls."

Ok, you doubt it. Um, ok. So to sum up, it's in the margin of error, but it's a cakewalk. Walking away slowly now...

0 comments: